Glass Ball Instead Of Econometrics:

Why the predictions of forecasters no good Berlin the spring report of the Institute of economic research forecast a decline in GDP of six percent for 2009. The DGB co-convenor Michael Sommer warned social unrest like in the 1930s in the face of the deep recession. The situation is comparable with the numbers from the years of economic crisis in 1930, 1931 and 1932, summer said on Wednesday evening on the ARD show hart aber fair”. May would people now turn away from politics or radicalize. According to Udo Nadolski, Managing Director of the Dusseldorf consulting firm Harvey Nash, not with the economic depression of the Weimar Republic, one could compare the numbers of the spring report. This is scientifically very unserious and for the people of the time, who have gone through hardship, hunger and misery,”an insult, criticized the staff expert Nadolski.

Also would the differences in level in addition to the change in GDP be taken into account. We would have to shrink around 90 percent, to get into a situation like around 80 years ago. It can be no question but. Even if we are thrown back on the level of prosperity of 2005 or 2006, we can handle very well the economic downturn”, Nadolski says. In addition, the forecasters had located in recent years regularly also. Nadolski wonders why this should be different this time”.

Maybe the Econometricians should try it with a glass ball, to create valid economic data. Similarly, authors Richard Gaul and Christiane Goetz judging the Cicero. The collective rush of crisis while finding parallels with 1929. Only this comparison is wrong. Namely, growth rates and not substance levels be compared”. The percentage record slump would say little is known about the real effects. The benchmark remains crucial and we shrink just on a very high level. From the highest that have ever given us the history of the world. The level of prosperity is to a Zigfaches over the 80 years ago”, so horse and Goetz. What you see – the life expectancy, quality of food, the level of education, the housing situation, the industrial capital stock we live so dramatically much richer than the generation of 1929 “, Gaul and Goetz explained. The predictions, this crisis will not only difficult, but also long, could be deceiving. As more and more evidence suggests that a recovery could faster ahead than most think. Many companies have greatly scaled back their inventories, so demand jumping to very quickly a lot must be produced again. You see this stock cycle effect currently at the consequences of the cash for clunkers of auto industry”explain Gaul and Goetz. The main framework would promise good messages for a speedy recovery: the extremely low oil and commodity prices, historically low interest rates, political stability, the multibillion-dollar stimulus and the absence of large conflicts could contribute to a surprisingly quick recovery of the economy. Already, the ZEW economic index suggests that re-ignites the economy. He’s to 16.5 points to plus 13 increased for the first time since July 2007 is back in positive territory. This is a message of NeueNachricht.

Ecommerce Sales

The new Europe B2C E-Commerce report 2013 the current report Europe B2C E-Commerce report 2013 of Hamburg secondary market research firm shows steady growth in online trading in Europe. One of the findings of the yStats analysts is that 2012 annual growth of E-Commerce stronger sales by 13 percentage points in Eastern Europe than in Western Europe. For 2013 a double-digit growth rate is expected in Western Europe by more than 10%, and in Eastern Europe by more than 20%, while growth should take off again until 2017. Although the growth rate in the East is higher, higher revenues obtained in the more mature Western European online market: 2012 almost 200 billion euros turnover in online trading in Europe and to achieve until 2016, more than $ 300 billion, with total revenues should amount during this period in the East to more than 50 billion euros. Consumers gain more confidence in shopping online according to 2012 almost half of all consumers in the EU-27 was the report at least a shop online.

To the countries with the highest online shopper penetration are the Scandinavian countries, GB, Germany, the Netherlands and France, all of which are above the EU average. Romania, Bulgaria and Italy are the countries with the lowest commercial rates. The most popular product categories in Europe electronics and clothing were measured by the range of the target group. The leading shopping websites were Amazon, Apple and websites of the Otto Group. Price comparison sites were also popular. Western Europe considered sales in Britain reached mature B2C E-Commerce B2C E-commerce market 2012 double-digit billion euro amount and should continue to grow. One of the trends that encourage online trading in the UK, is mobile commerce: 2012 doubled its share of the mobile purchases on the Gesamtonlineoumsatz. Leading online retailers such as Amazon, Argos, next and Tesco achieve substantial rates of access through mobile devices.

Reduce Health Risks

Alarming findings: health hazards of laser printers and photocopiers. Laser printers and copiers charge the air with an unfiltered blend of hazardous fine dust, ultra-fine particles and pollutants. When printing, small particles are released which can enter the respiratory tract and the lungs. This may cause serious health damage that show new study on the health effects of toner dust. In Germany alone, more than 50,000 tons consumed toner. Health hazards: Allergies and inflammation of the respiratory tract and the skin is increasing dramatically. Chronic obstructive respiratory diseases are the most strongly increasing cause of death – worldwide! Annual 266.000 deaths due to fine dust loads according to the EU Commission in Europe alone.

According to the U.S. environmental protection agency, the largest health risks emanating from indoor air. \”Laser printers and photocopiers are the worst single source of contaminants in the Office,\” says Michael Braungart, Professor of engineering and Director of the Hamburg Environmental Institute. The Institute for occupational safety and health of the German statutory accident insurance in St. Augustine writes in a technical paper to nanoparticles in the workplace: \”Is that nano-particles can penetrate barriers in the body and in organs, the larger particles inaccessible are expected.\” Contracting authority of the investigation is the nationally recognized Foundation of nano-control, which is under the auspices of the former President of the German Federal Environment Agency Georges Fulgraff. In an attempt at the University Hospital Freiburg responded six subjects already after half an hour in a room where toner printer running with flu-like symptoms: irritation and inflammation of the respiratory tract, swelling of the lymph nodes, sneezing, mucosal redness and swelling, coughing, voice changes and fatigue. Also, possible reactions are inflammation of the eyes and the skin. Toner dust is also suspected to cause allergies and asthma. The long-term consequences of the Permanent Inhaling toner dust were, however, so far still not fully researched.